When creating a betting strategy for some reason we tend to look for over goal strategies, meaning that we look for leagues and teams with a high goal frequency, but there are many leagues and teams that are on the other side that are very profitable. In this article we are going to explain step by step how to identify leagues in which the goal average is low and are profitable this season.
► How to find profitable leagues for the market under 2.5 goals with league position.
With the our Football Analysis tool we can check the profitability of the markets during the current season and the previous ones, as well as being able to filter using different filters such as streaks. To do this is really simple:
Go to the Backtesting tool and open the filters section.
Select all the European leagues, from the current season and Under 2.5 goals market. Then we can see the filters loaded on the right side!
The premise is to look for those teams that are not high scorers and therefore tend to be in the top positions, or those teams that are heavily thrashed and therefore are at the bottom of the rankings. We are going to apply the changes and close the window to see the results by league. To have a clearer view, we sort the leagues by yield by clicking on the corresponding column.
As we will see, there are 6 leagues that are offering more than a 10% yield this season with the selected filters. To have a clearer vision, we are going to eliminate the rest of the leagues to analyze the total results only with these very profitable leagues.
If we are left alone with the leagues that have a yield greater than 10%, we obtain a system with a 21.94% yield, a maximum expected draw down of -5.67 units and an average odds of 1.86
► How to find profitable leagues for the market under 2.5 goals with streak
With the tool we use there is the Backtesting tool we can check the profitability of the markets during the current season and the previous ones, as well as being able to filter using different filters such as streaks.
To do this, what we are going to do is go to the Backtesting tool and open the filters section, and then select all the European leagues, the current season and the Under 2.5 goals market. When we finish we can see the filters loaded on the right side.
Every time we make a modification we must click on APPLY CHANGES, so that the modifications are applied.
Now we are going to go to the STATISTICS tab and within that tab we are going to STREAKS. There we are going to add a streak for the local team (Home) of Under 0.5HT Streak of 2 games. What we are doing is filtering and viewing only those games in which the home team comes off a 2-game streak in which the score at halftime (of the home team) was 0-0.
After applying the changes we close the filter window, and we are going to sort the leagues by yield from highest to lowest.
With this, we will now stay with the first 4 leagues, which are the ones that throughout this season are offering a higher performance (greater than 5%).
This leaves us with a system of less than 2.5 goals that this season is yielding with 11.38%, with a hit ratio of 62% and an average share of 1.83
► How To Find Profitable Leagues For The Under 2.5 Goals Market With Average Goal Statistics
For this example we are going to select again all the European leagues, the market under 2.5 goals and the current season.
Again we are going to reopen the STATISTICS filters, but this time we are going to go to the AVG GOALS tab and select Home Scored Overall, to filter by the average number of goals that the home team scores when playing home and away . When we add it we will see the filter selected on the right side.
We close the window and reorder the leagues by yield from highest to lowest.
As we can see, only two leagues are above 5% yield. However, they offer quite acceptable returns and that we can take advantage of for the second round of the league. For this strategy we are going to stay with the Scottish Championship and the English Premier League, leaving a system of less than 2.5 goals with the following results:
Although we only have two leagues, it is a very good scenario to take into account and enter the games of this system of minus 2.5 goals.