Did you know that you can place bets against one or more markets? With the Football analysis tool you use you can filter the matches of the day to stay only with those that meet the parameters that interest you. This can be applied to any type of strategy, and in this article we are going to talk about a betting strategy against the correct score 0-1 and 0-2.
► What is betting against a market?
Normally when we say that we are going to bet on something we make a bet in favor, for example a bet Over 2.5 goals we are betting in favor that there will be more than 2.5 goals in the match. There is another way to proceed in exchange bookmakers that offer to bet against that same market. Betting against more than 2.5 goals only will be a winning bet if there are less than 2.5 goals in the match . These types of bets are known as lay bets.
► The best matches to bet against the correct score
A logical approach to finding matches and including them in our strategy to bet against the correct score 0-1 and 0-2 is to look for those matches where those scores have occurred very rarely. This with our favorite tool is very simple, also in you will be able to find these filters already prepared to be able to load it in 2 clicks.
In the Pre-match tool we are going to click on Add a Preset and select the preset “Lay 0-1 & Lay 0-2”. As we can see in the description of the preset, this will leave us a list of matches in which the 0-1 marker and the 0-2 marker have been given a maximum of 5% of the sample. The sample on which this percentage will be applied will be chosen by us in our user profile.
When applying the preset, it will leave us the list of matches of the day with the filters and parameters established
► Betting strategy AGAINST the correct pre-match score
The first strategy that we are going to see is to bet against the correct score in the pregame without performing any type of live operation. This is easier to do since we would apply what is called “set and forget”, meaning, we make the entry and forget about the game until it ends to check the result. For this strategy, all we have to do is apply a relationship between the bookie odd and the real odds given to us by our preferred analysis tool.
In this case we would apply a second manual filter (we could do it in the “add filters” section but it is not necessary) in which we are going to discard all the bookmaker odds that are higher than @ 10) and from there we filter again and we are left with the market that has the greatest difference in negative value between the real odd and the odd of the bookmaker.
In this case we would be left with the correct score 0-2. Our tool’s actual odds are @ 39.25 (2.5% probability) and the bookmaker’s is @ 7 (14.3% probability). We are going to apply a betting strategy AGAINST the correct marker, so we are interested in looking for the correct marker with the least probability of happening (2.5% probability according to our tool) and that at the same time the bookmaker thinks there is more. probability of it happening and therefore we get paid better (14.3%).
► Betting strategy AGAINST the correct score live
To carry out the following strategy, the filtering method would be exactly the same as in the pre-match correct score strategy. The difference in this strategy is that we are going to adjust our risk (what we are betting) according to the circumstances that occur in the game. The objective of this strategy is to secure profits or reduce losses.
What factors are going to cause us to make changes in our strategy) Whether or not there are goals. Continuing with the previous example, if we have applied our betting strategy against the correct score 0-2 and the local scores a goal, our entry would be 100% won and we would not have to do anything else, it is an ideal situation.
It can also happen that the game is already quite advanced (minute 60-65) and the score remains 0-0. Faced with this situation, we could close our bet with a fairly high percentage of our profits and get out of this operation successfully.
But there are other types of situations that are not favorable and in which we will have to evaluate the state of the game to make the best decision.
A goal from the visiting team puts our stake at risk and here we must analyze the situation taking into account:
• The minute the goal occurs
• How teams react
• The risk we want to take
• The data that our tool gives us We must study these three parameters (in fact we must do it before the game to be prepared) and make the decision that we believe is correct:
• Let the entry run until we obtain the benefits we want and close
• Exit with stoploss
It is not the same that the goal is produced in the 30th minute as in the 85th minute, in the same way that it is not the same if the visiting team is going to look for the second goal than if it backs down to ensure the match. The confidence and risk that we have in that result also influences. But we also have a very effective tool that will help us make the best decision, the NextGoal tool within the Explorer in our Football Analysis software.
We are going to analyze the goal probabilities if the score goes 0-1 at minute 37 with the data from this season and the previous one.
We have some very interesting data here. In 100% of the occasions there was one more goal (home or away), but of that 100% only 20% had a total of 2 goals (1-1 or 0-2), that is, in 80 % of the times the score went 0-1 at minute 37 there were at least 2 more goals and our entry would be a winner .
Therefore, this time it would be very interesting to wait for more goals and close, at the very least, without losses or gains, or even waiting for a local goal that would give us 100% of our entry.